Kenya’s popular columnist Ngunyi… read the unpublished contraversial article below

Nairobi (Alshahid) – The most popular columnist for Kenya’s mainstream newspaper The Sunday Nation has been stopped from writing any articles for the paper following his unpublished article that had alleged a constitutional coup in case Kenyans voted for the government-backed proposed constitution.

Mr Mutahi Ngunyi a house-hold name because of his incisive and fearless articles received the wrath of the media owners whose policy is apparently to support the proposed new constitution.

Revealing the reason for his banning during an interview on K24’s Capital Talk programme, Ngunyi said he could not continue with his weekly column in the Sunday Nation due to his claims in the unpublished article that exposed an alleged vacuum in the transition clause of the proposed law that would allow the two principles; President Kibaki or PM Raila Odinga to continue in office without going through an election.

Lovers of the prolific writer including renown former CCN journalist Jeff Koinange have loudly voiced their disappointment threatening to boycott reading the Sunday Nation.

The following is a full excerpt of the contraversial article

Are we headed for ‘civilian coup’ with draft law?

President Kibaki’s “Yes” is not the same as Mr Odinga’s “Yes”. And the difference is unclear. What we must record, however, is this: One of them is more “No” than “Yes”. But we do not know which one. We must record another thing. All along, Mr Odinga supported a Parliamentary system.

But Mr Odinga abandoned this idea. And when he embraced the pure presidential system, he threw everyone off. The question, therefore, is this: Did he go underground? Or maybe it is the president who went underground. Once we figure this out, we will understand our present darkness including the ‘‘Sunday grenade’’. And my hypothesis is this: In their ‘‘unity’’, the war has gone underground. Now it is our responsibility to uncover it.

To do so, we must use a simple technique in Game Theory. We must take the draft constitution, play it forward first. Then ask; if it passes, who is the winner, who is the loser? From the answers, we must play it backwards. Here we must ask the question: Today, how are the winners behaving? And how are the losers behaving? Today I will ‘‘play it forward’’ and leave you to ‘‘play it backward’’. I will do it by playing out two scenarios.

One, chapter 9 of the draft favours the president and his coalition. If there are 14 million voters, ‘‘KKK’’ has close to 8 million. To the contrary, ODM’s assured vote is about 4 million. While the ‘‘KKK’’ vote meets the 50-plus-one per cent rule, the ODM one stands at 30 per cent.

The Senate is also dominated by KKK. The first 11 Senators, or 23 pc, will be from the Nation of Islam as per the First Schedule. Close to half will be from KKK. Between the two principals, therefore, who stands to gain from the 8 million votes and a dominant presence in the Senate? President Kibaki, of course. Is he in ‘‘Yes’’ because of this? I have no idea.

What about the Prime Minister; our man of the future? If the draft disadvantages him, why is he in the “Yes” camp? Consider my second scenario based on Game Theory. Here is my reading of the Sixth Schedule of the draft. Articles 3, 9 and 10 of this schedule make an election in 2012 impossible. Article 10 allows Parliament to finish its ‘‘unexpired term’’ but does not tell us how Parliament will be dissolved.

And this is because Article 3 removes Section 59 of the current constitution. This is the section that tells us how to dissolve Parliament. Because the President will not dissolve Parliament, it must dissolve five years from when it first sat on January 16, 2008. And this translates to January 15, 2013. From this date, Article 9 and 3 require us to hold an election in 60 days. Arithmetically, this takes us to March 17, 2013 as the earliest date of the next election. But there is a bigger problem.

Article 3 does not suspend the provisions that define the President’s term. In other words, President Kibaki’s term will expire on December 29, 2012 as per Section 9(1) of the current constitution. And if this happens, we will have to wait for close to three months for a presidential election to happen on March 15, 2013. In sum, we will have no president, constitutionally, for three months. Let us aggravate the situation further.

Strictly speaking, the draft does not allow Parliament to extend to January 15, 2013. In fact, it gives it five years from August 20 this year. The draft allows Parliament to finish its ‘‘unexpired term’’. However, the legal instrument that defines this ‘‘unexpired term’’ is Section 59(4) of the current constitution. This section is thrown out. In law, therefore, there is no way to define the ‘‘unexpired term’’ in the absence of Section 59(4).

No competent court will refer to this section after August 20 on account of Article 264. If this is true, the term of Parliament will only be defined through Articles 101 and 102 of the draft constitution. And, going by this, the next election will have to happen on the second Tuesday of August 2015.

Because we cannot have a presidential election until Parliament is dissolved as per Article 9(1) of the Sixth Schedule, this means that we will stay from December 2012 to August 2015 without a constitutionally elected president. But this should not be a problem anyway. The Peace Accord is retained and enhanced by the Sixth Schedule. There will be no power vacuum.

Whether we stay for three months or three years without a constitutionally elected President, the alternative principal, Mr Odinga, will assume executive power through a ‘‘civilian coup’’. Now the question to the public is this: If one of the principals is more “No” than “Yes”, who is it?

I invite you to ponder the question with a man from the State of Chu in mind. The man was as passionate about war as we are about politics. One day, he was crossing a river using a boat. But his sword fell into the waters. With speed, he made a mark on the boat. The mark was made where his sword had fallen. This would help him trace the sword once the boat docked at shore.

When the boat stopped, he jumped into the water at the place where he had marked the boat to look for his sword. Unfortunately, the boat had moved on, but the sword had not. I submit that we dropped something in the 2008 crisis. We did not stop to ‘‘collect’’ it. Now we hope the draft constitution will do it. Like the man from Chu, we are deluded. Our hope is that when the constitutional ‘‘boat’’ stops on August 20, we will collect our possessions. This will not happen. On this, and my interpretation of the Sixth Schedule, I could be wrong.


Leave a Reply

  1. now Ngunyi; what are those who stopped u from publishing this awesome article thinking about especially with yesterdays’ ruling spot-on, on this butiful piece. gudos g/man. but i hop i’ll c u soon on one of our Dailys.
    The Standard can do me GOOD!!!!

  2. By the way Ngunyi, what about a case in court against the media house that sent u parking, but denying us SALTED KNOWLEDGE and words of wisdom!! ujinga lazima liishhe!!!!

  3. thanks ngunyi for the article though it wasnt published.infact you had seen what the courts would later are really a “think tank”

  4. who r the KKK n the 8million votes why come with this articles at this time n u read the draft n vote YES or NO u r trying to confusse us

  5. People were in such a rush to have a new constitution no matter what the consequences’d be.. Now’s when we’re seeing the repurcusions.. Having to make random, unecessary amendments for silly things like the date of the elections.. A fact we’ve been AWARE of since the constitution was put in place?! All those excuses of having no time are just rubbish?!
    ** Tis time to show these non-performer, bottom-worth-200k,politicians the door **

  6. It sounds like Ngunyi had a revelation from the heavens.Word for word as per the Judges ruling, will the same forces now stop the Judges from publishing their Judgement as well?.They say the truth is always bitter, but the other side of it is that it also sets people free.Kenyans persih due to lack of knowledge.

  7. Whether I agree or not with Mr. Ngunyi, I must admit that his points of view are thought-provoking and have the desired effect – that of making one think outside the box, and making one realize that there’s more to some issues that meets the eye.

    You’re sorely missed, Mr. Ngunyi.

  8. Mutai this is a good exposure; we need to know and I got a number of questions” Are we as Citizens “doomed”?? I want to find out, what can we do on our part to stop these “Selfish Leaders” from stealing what is rightful ours??

  9. No more KKK of G7-there cannot be an ideology of denying one just because. Its become their Archiles heel. Now they’re splattered like sea shells.

    • Read this article in the sunday Nation of 19th June 2010 too so for those who say it was not published and giving too many kudos to Ngunyi I wonder what papers you were reading…, stop acting like our politicians, dont be sycophants. Mr. Ngunyi you were a good writer.

  10. the prophecy of elections at 2013 already fulfilled from the court ruling, what of that of 2015? somebody smarter, not our parliamentarian, had this in mind since inception and he carries the big YES

  11. i had read this before and now its clearer…cant the nation bite the bullet and apologise to us first as your fans, second to you and third to whoever endowed you with the hindsight? we need you back, prefferably in the standard.

  12. Hehehehe!!! Kenyans! If what Mutahi is saying is true which by the judges ruling seems most likely, We then need to do something before we become the next man from Chu!

  13. This reminds me how many branded me ANTI-reform minded, archaich and all sorts of abusive names coz of my ‘NO’. This is should dawn on them to realize how euphoria blinded them at the expense of reason.

  14. It is wrong to demonize anyone without the facts.

    Nation deserves kudos for publishing this article on June 19th 2010. The link is posted by one of the readers for your reference.

  15. Ngunyi, you are a political seer. Can you start publishing in the Standard or such other paper. I miss your incisive political analysis.

  16. Mutahi Ngunyi is just but a tribalist in his TV interviews. Today he is here, tomorrow there. His aspersion that Uhuru is his own maker politically is neither here nor there, he is simply playing the tribal card, truth be told, Uhuru is not even a presidential material but just a political project, period!

  17. incredible…this would indeed leave us in a quagmire of catastrophic proportions….the constitution can only be explained by the words contained therein verbatim seriatim….any vacuum exposes this country to the kind of stuff we reserve for our worst nightmares…

  18. Great minds like Ngunyi is what Kenya needs. we need to put more emphasis on logical thinking and argumentation, we can not continue basing our argument on trivia but objectivity will take us far. it is important to use all available fora to allow for argumentation. if the papers are intolerant, then let the thinkers use the social media to enlighten kenyans. Kudos Mutahi, Keep the fire burning.

  19. amazing how logical thinking is downtrodden in kenya.however,journalists should stick to their code of ethics…write objectively & if subjective then be honest.freedom of expression should be inherent though

  20. Pingback: Mutahi Ngunyi... was this a writing on the wall that was ignored?? - Mashada Forums

  21. this was to happen.Has the court not said so?or they will say that the court conspired with mutahi.Mutahi remain my best political analyst of our time.period

  22. Very good article Mutahi.. if only you had gotten the article published at the time the constitution was being reviewed. You would have saved us all this anguish.


  23. Mutahi, your so biased in your analyzing, I Dont know whether your a christian, becoz you said in one TV station that there is no political miracle. Check Obama, What can you say about him. Let me tell you this, surely there is miracle , if your a true christian you will get miracles. This country will be led by the God choice. Not what you and me think. God raises people and lowers them. God uses weak to a shame the mighty. I tell you that, you be surprised to see the stone your mocking will be the cornerstone. Its like you said Uhuru is going to be the president, becoz you said raila always goes up and at some point comes down.

  24. Mutahi,Kindly go to any other print media.And beleive you me i will buy that paper all the time.I always trust and beleive what you put on paper.

  25. kudos mutahi you had seen it coming.jeff should invite u more on the bench this year.which newspaper should teke u coz am missing the last word .thanks

  26. What newpaper were you people reading? Why the pretence? Check Ombako’s comment and you realise your giving praise to an article that was written and published by the daily Nation on 19th June 2010. Then ask yourselves are you being real or just sycophants? And what newspaper you read on that day if any. For Mr. Ngunyi are these guys your true readers? Why didnt they send these comments on the day the article was published? These are the same guys who voted for the constitution just to have a new constitution without thinking, reading or even understanding the document.

  27. Where did you go Mutahi. Come back an write those thought provoking articles. Forget about those who do not understand you. In fact your writing are clearly labeled that they a opinion so no body should lynch you for what you have clearly stated that it is your opinion-but informed opinion. more importantly you usually conclude that “on this one…. I could be wrong. technology has liberalized writing and no media house should behave as if will are in the dark KANU days.Post your articles anywhere and I will read or publish them anywhere and I will buy.

  28. Ngunyi, the Game Theory is fantastic. As a Kenyan, I have realized we do not collect quite often. We allow the leaders and the media pull us into their pool of what we should be concentrating on. The state of looking backward and forward is of essence if we are to fully be liberalized human beings able to think and decide for ourselves asking hard questions that the media may not cover, your article is a great example.

    In the 80′s the Poles boycotted the media! It was a silent demonstration of solidarity that made the government analyze and study the importance of public opinions. Perhaps we can all join Jeff Koinange for a day of media boycott until your article gets published.

    Wairimu Gitau.

  29. I was student and used 2 absecond lesson only 2 read,this givted-thinking man’s artical,i mssd, goggled his name i saw nguyi banned frm wrtng,i dnt believ,i felt nostalgic 2 read

  30. i ve always read ngunyi’s articles with alot of care,infact btn the lines’ , however , i dont believe that what he stands for is the gospel truth, Bt , there is 95% truth in some cases .The nation media group shld ve published this article without further editing it.Coz there is some truth in this masterpiece so to say.

    Well done Ngunyi, publish it elsewhere, we shall still read it, even if it is kenya times!.

  31. This is to correct My Nyasae Kimo, you seem to take in a truth all that you see and hear. What you forget is that what you see and hear is designed to make you exactly what you have become,… a docile believing-without-questioning kind of guy.
    Obama, like many other former American presidents who come from a common kinship, was selected by the elite who own America and everything in it to represent racial justice, and it has nothing to do with what we wish were miracles.
    The Coucilk of foreign relations, which Obama was eventually allowed to sit in is a front for the about ten or fifteen families who own almost everything on earth including and headed by the Queen of England, the Rothschilds, the Van Dynne, the Bush…….etc etc. To believe what you see is to get lost. Family, ets etc

  32. I have great respect for mutahi and i stopped reading the sunnday nation for sometime after his column was killed.I cant afford to miss his wittyful opinions on TV and kudos Mutahi you had seen it all and the courts just rubber stamped your echo…keep the good work and I think its time your column was rekindled….