As Somali policy fluctuates day after day, we are ready to watch new scenario in the battlefield although Somali people confused the contradictory thoughts that comes period after period. These scenarios entered new face after the radical groups’ offer new present against their competitors in the same field, when one of Al-shabab teenager rise their flag and descent Somali flag in Mogadishu last week. This action burned many patriots inside and outside Somalia because people never predict such these bad actions.
Also,before weeks, the mass media were discussing controversial issue about these fanatic signs and their new conflict that rose in Shamow suicide when Al-shabab speaker refused or politicized to announce or claim that suicide and finally resulted disagreement between them, and killing at least four Al-shabab insurgents, and dividing into two groups.
The background of al-shabab up to their rose
The Institutional Structure
The Al-Shabaab Al-Mujahidiin is an offshoot of Somalia’s recent Islamic Courts Union. This evolved from a grass-roots community driven Islamic Jihad movement inspired by Somali Islamic scholars who were trained in Saudi Arabia as Wahhabi sect followers.
An active, armed, politicized fanatical group nominally operates under the ICU flag. Over 95 % of its leadership and regular members are from the Central Regions. A very flexible organization with multiple cells has no specifically written or declared program. Other than creating and imposing strictly Islamic Wahhabi doctrine in Somalia, and with the Express aim of expanding it to the rest of the Horn of Africa in time, and eventually into various corners of the Africa continent (proper).
Al-Shabaab and a few other Islamic extremists in Somalia including the ICU have their roots in the former Al-Itihad Al-Islamiya, which also evolved from Somalia’s religious organization. The Al-Salafiya Al-jadiid in the early 1970’s. The former defeated Al-Salafiya Al-jadiid Somali President (General) Mohamed Siyad Barre) in the late 1970’s and Al-itihad Al-Islamiya in Somalia was defeated by Col. Abdulahi Yusuf, the former Somali president, During the early 1990’s in the North East region of Somalia and later by the Ethiopian military In the Gedo region in Somalia.
The new Al-Shabaab Leadership
The new Al-Shabaab Leadership were decentralized, often with loosely coordinated levels of leadership that revolve around local villages and religious leaders, who are guided by these scholars for interpretations of the meaning of the Jihad and the Qur’an in specific terms as well as for the guidance of the armed conflict against the TFG and Ethiopian security forces. Moreover, other African peace keeping forces present in Mogadishu. In the past, they used to be in conflict with traditional religious leaders but the radicals seem to have overpowered them now.
In December 2007, the al-Shabaab website announced that the group had designated a new leader, or ‘Amir’, named Sheikh Mukhtar Abdirahman ‘Abu Zubeyr’ – is one of the shabaab’s better known, more radical figure In practice, however, the Shabaab appear to function as several largely autonomous commands:
Shabaab International/Benadir headed by Adan Hashi Ayrow, is active in Mogadishu and Central Somalia. Another, led by Shabaab spokesperson Mukhtaar Roobow ‘Abu Mansuur’ operates mainly in the Bay and Bakool regions, and a third group, led by Hassan Abdillahi ‘Turki’, operates mainly in Lower and Middle Jubba regions in the South. So far, the following are most active and known principal leaders of the organization with some of the names and pictures of the alshabab leadership, where possible.
What we can guess coming day
According what we are watching and reading the magazines inside Somalia we can imagine that the future of al-shabab is going to his end because the revolution signs began before weeks and that is due to lack of their pure policy although I hear that they are not believe what we call policy.
Another think we can guess that they will divide many groups as we hear initially this week add to this that people are losing their tolerance. However, if al-shabab and their foreign fighters dropped away, what the next scenario will be? I think we can see unexpected things in their stronghold positions because they corrupt all Somali cultural measurement and will astonished many things that they were hidden.
Finally, I suggest that our opinion leader must give a serious attention for the next step and focus the brainwash programs and our mass media must play a vital role for these programs such as inviting them, making special programs and so on.
Unless these things done we will be victimized for another problem, because we entered new age of backward and situation will be “if you didn’t drop the radicals you will be dropped”
I used some information presented by Abdi Said M. Ali in workshop organized by IGAD held in Uganda in April 2008